Europe’s energy transition is driving a reduced reliance on gas, yet episodes of renewable intermittency, known as Dunkelflaute, are generating greater volatility in gas demand. This term, which translates to “dark lull” in German, refers to periods of low wind and solar generation caused by weather conditions. These events have tested the resilience of Europe’s energy systems throughout 2024.

«Gas-fired generation remains the principal source of backup for Europe’s electricity system,» highlights the report by the New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES). Dunkelflaute episodes in January and November of this year proved particularly critical, driving an increased need for gas plants to fill the gaps in renewable output. In November, reduced wind and hydro availability pushed gas’s share of the energy mix to 21%, the highest level since 2022.

Gas demand volatility

Although Europe’s overall gas consumption has declined by approximately 20% over the past three years, demand within the power sector has become increasingly unpredictable. «Gas is no longer just a source of short-term flexibility—it has become more volatile and less predictable,» explains the OIES.

Dunkelflaute episodes often coincide with cold weather, as seen in January 2024, when simultaneous spikes in heating and electricity demand caused gas withdrawals from underground storage to double. Over just 13 days, 10 bcm (billion cubic metres) of gas were extracted. In November, storage withdrawals reached 4.5 bcm within two weeks, underscoring the direct impact of renewable intermittency on Europe’s energy systems.

The integration of renewables, which accounted for 45–50% of monthly electricity generation in 2024, has intensified this volatility. As clean technologies displace fossil fuels, gas has shifted from being a baseload source to a critical backup. However, this shift introduces challenges, particularly as gas use becomes increasingly dependent on weather conditions.

The importance of supply flexibility

In this context, supply flexibility has become vital. Europe has relied on two pillars: gas storage and liquefied natural gas (LNG). During the demand surges of January and November, storage and LNG accounted for much of the market’s needs. In November, storage withdrawals hit 5.9 bcm, while LNG terminals operated at maximum capacity.

The report emphasises the role of underground storage, which provides up to 20,000 GWh of daily withdrawal capacity, sufficient to meet even the most extreme peaks. However, «the ability to respond to daily fluctuations remains uneven across European countries,» the document notes. Germany, France, and Italy together account for 75% of the bloc’s storage capacity, highlighting the need for greater regional coordination.

Simultaneously, LNG has been essential in maintaining system stability. LNG imports have risen by 40% since 2022, compensating for the loss of Russian pipeline gas following the invasion of Ukraine. European regasification terminals, operating at 90% capacity, have proven indispensable in addressing market volatility.

Solutions for a resilient system

The OIES report concludes that Europe must invest in technologies to complement renewables and reduce reliance on gas, such as long-duration batteries and demand response systems. «The market has demonstrated its ability to handle demand peaks, but the energy transition requires more sustainable long-term solutions,» asserts the institute.

In the meantime, natural gas remains indispensable as a backup. Developing a more flexible and diversified infrastructure will be key to addressing future Dunkelflaute episodes. Enhanced coordination between nations, strengthening storage systems, and modernising networks will be crucial to ensuring a resilient and effective energy transition.

Additionally, improvements in weather forecasting and optimising renewable dispatch strategies could help mitigate the frequency and magnitude of demand peaks, easing pressure on conventional systems. Ultimately, the balance between renewable generation and system flexibility will define the success of Europe’s energy strategy.