The recent strategy of the United States could signify a shift in the development of renewable projects in Europe. According to Manuel Parra Palacios, a scientific and technical analyst at Repsol, a short-term review of these projects is almost inevitable. “It is highly likely that they will face delays and reassessments. While they may be reactivated in the future, the initial directives seem to focus on boosting the oil & gas industry and artificial intelligence,” he asserts.
This strategic shift was announced following Donald Trump’s re-election speech, where he reiterated his scepticism towards renewable energy, particularly offshore wind. Trump emphasised his preference for fossil fuels, labelling wind energy as “expensive” and “unreliable.” These remarks echo his first term in office, during which he stalled the expansion of renewables in the United States, setting a precedent that appears to be continuing under the new administration. Additionally, protectionist policies and trade tensions with China have heightened uncertainty for international investments in renewables.
In Europe, the impact of this strategic change is also being felt
Parra Palacios observes, “The trade and technological war between China and the United States is damaging Europe’s industrial fabric, where investments have slowed, and the weight of the industry is declining.” The transition to clean energy is particularly delicate in countries where decarbonisation heavily relies on the offshore wind industry. “The case of the automotive industry will show us to what extent Europe must adapt,” Parra Palacios explains, referring to a sector undergoing rapid transformation due to regulatory pressures and shifts in global trade dynamics.
However, not everyone views this change as negative. Jan Vos, Chairman of the Dutch association NedZero, told Financieele Dagblad: “Trump’s decision regarding offshore wind energy could have a positive impact on Europe. There is so much global demand for offshore wind energy that the supply chain is overstretched. If this market disappears, it will bring relief.” Vos believes that building wind farms remains a sound investment and asserts that U.S. policies will not alter this fact.
In this context, several European countries could benefit from reduced global competition in the wind energy market. The Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany, for instance, have been at the forefront of offshore wind technology development and are well-positioned to capitalise on this opportunity. Moreover, initiatives like the European Green Deal aim to accelerate investments in renewable infrastructure, fostering public-private collaboration to overcome technological scaling challenges.
Despite its importance, offshore wind faces challenges in Europe. “It is not a key technology in decarbonisation; it is important but ranks behind onshore wind and solar, depending on scaling in each country,” Parra Palacios analyses. The high initial investment demands and complex regulatory processes limit its implementation in certain nations. This underscores the need for a more robust strategy in Europe to maintain leadership in renewables amidst an uncertain global trade landscape.
The global context is marked by the growing rivalry between China and the United States, which, according to Parra Palacios, could lead to a reduction in commitments in Europe or a change in timelines for implementing climate goals. European countries, meanwhile, are striving to consolidate their position as leaders in renewables by seizing opportunities in emerging markets and bolstering energy independence. However, this transition will not be without challenges, particularly in the face of rising raw material costs and supply chain tensions.
The reconfiguration of priorities in the United States has profound implications for the development of renewable energy and the European industry. While some sectors face challenges from project slowdowns, others see an opportunity to strengthen their position. This context highlights the need for strategic policies and international collaboration to drive the global energy transition. Today’s decisions will shape the role of renewables in a future dominated by new geopolitical tensions and technological shifts.
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