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Italy Faces a Virtual Grid Saturation with Over 300 GW of Connection Requests
According to recent data from Terna, grid connection requests for renewable projects in Italy exceed 300 GW. This phenomenon reflects the pressure of industrial convenience and public planning, notes Alessandro Visalli, who explains that the lack of technical requirements for applications creates virtual grid saturation with a large number of projects unlikely to result in operational plants.
The Italian renewable energy sector is confronting a significant challenge as grid connection requests surpass 340 GW, stemming from over 6,000 projects, according to data provided by Terna at the end of October. This volume, equivalent to multiplying the current installed capacity several times, reflects both the growing market demand and the lack of restrictions in the application procedures, explains Alessandro Visalli, architect and vice president of Progetto Verde.
«This wave of renewable projects responds to a dual pressure: industrial convenience and public programming,» Visalli emphasizes. Due to outdated technical regulations inherited from the liberalization policies of the 1990s, any project can request grid access without the need for significant technical or financial assessments.
«As a result, there are no restrictions or limits on grid access requests, the cost is minimal, and no financial standing is required. This has led many to believe that by obtaining an Stmg (Grid Access Budget from Enel or Terna)—which can be done practically without any specific technical knowledge—they are securing a valuable asset that can be sold on the market,» the Progetto Verde representative explained in an interview with Energía Estratégica España.
«However, that’s not the case. The budget, if not accompanied by significant technical and negotiation skills, credibility, and market knowledge, usually remains just a piece of paper. The issue is that, as long as it remains valid, it ‘reserves’ grid injection capacity, virtually saturating the network,» he adds.
This has led to virtual saturation, with requests that are mostly just budgets or poorly managed documentation that will not result in operational plants, according to the specialist. In this context, the grid operator is forced to consider the requests and plan for grid upgrades or new electrical substations to accommodate other applications.
Based on estimates from past investment cycles, only one in five submitted projects might reach completion. «The grid is saturated with thousands of projects that, in reality, are poorly prepared documents or poorly located ones,» Visalli adds, warning that the perceived threat may be disproportionate.

A slowdown in the development of renewable projects
The Italian renewable energy market is also experiencing a slowdown. Data from the Ministry of Environment and Energy Security (MASE) shows a decline in certain months. For instance, March saw a 26% drop in the submission of new projects, while June registered a 38% decrease compared to the same months in the previous year.
According to Visalli, this trend has been driven by the simultaneous introduction of the Agriculture Legislative Decree and the Ministerial Decree (MD) on Suitable Areas. Additionally, some regions have been experiencing progressive «virtual» grid saturation and a higher concentration of projects in the most promising nodes.
The Agriculture Decree, approved in July, prohibits the construction of photovoltaic plants on agricultural land, which could explain the drop in project submissions in June—a month marked by heated debates and the decree’s conversion process.
Meanwhile, the MD on Suitable Areas delegates to regions the task of defining areas suitable for renewable projects, creating uncertainty and friction in the sector. This has been exacerbated by Sardinia’s regulation imposing an 18-month moratorium on the construction of renewable plants.
«This double blow to investor confidence in renewables led to a drastic reduction in new projects, with almost half the usual number submitted the following month,» Visalli states. He adds that this market uncertainty is likely to continue until more regions implement restrictive regulations, as several already committed to the energy transition are preparing to do.
The specialist further indicates that these regulations, along with Sardinia’s situation, have caused significant upheaval among operators and have eroded trust in the country.
«Reactions have varied: some operators have frozen their development plans, while others have sought to reduce their financial risk exposure. Some have attempted to renegotiate existing contracts. Many less structured or more exposed operators in the ‘origination’ sector have faced severe financial impacts,» he explains.
Visalli analyzes that the market is currently in a «cautious» and waiting phase. «Many have strengthened their internal structures in the hope of reducing costs, some have focused on small projects with declarative procedures, and others are seeking to acquire initiatives at very low prices,» he notes.
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